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Growth Management and the Timing and Intensity of Land Development Author: Christopher R. Cunningham Dissertation School: Syracuse University Pages: 94 Publication Date: 09/2004 Availability: Access Number: 10885 Abstract: Work initially funded by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Early Doctoral Research Grant culminated in two completed papers examining price uncertainty in housing development. Utilizing assessor office records and county GIS files, the first paper, "House Price Uncertainty, Timing of Development and Vacant Land Prices: Evidence for Real Options in Seattle," is one of the first papers in the literature to test for real option considerations in land development decisions. Econometric hazard models and OLS regressions reveal that a one standard-deviation increase in house price uncertainty is associated with an 11-percent decline in the likelihood of development and a 1.6-percent increase in the price of vacant land. The second paper, "Growth Controls, Real Options and Land Development" goes on to test whether restrictive zoning, such as the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) drawn around the greater Seattle area reduces the effect of price uncertainty on development by reducing uncertainty about optimum building scale. I find evidence generally consisted with hypothesis. While the likelihood of development is generally reduced by the presence of price uncertainty, land outside the boundary, after the law, is statistically unaffected. This finding suggests that presence of real options in land markets caused the UGB to be less successful in curbing rural development. |
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